Start by loading the NFL schedule. No sample picks or results are displayed.
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Preparing automatic market scan…
Each streak compares completed game stats to the displayed CURRENT line. Historical weekly betting results are not implied. Main lines only; one book/line per player and market. Upcoming eight days.
Historical observations begin when you collect them. Missing archived lines stop the streak.
The Sharp List
Ranked by supporting evidence, not streak length alone. Usage compares L3 vs prior L3, or L2 vs prior L2 when only four current-season games are available.
Scan coverage
Data coverage: awaiting source audit.
90% means at least 15 of 16 defined checks plus every required check. It is input coverage, not prediction accuracy. Unknown inputs fail; fresh injury-feed access does not confirm a player is healthy.
No scan completed yet.
Game-log import
Automatic scanning loads game logs. Optional manual JSON corrections can also be imported. Values must use the same market and units as the prop. Dates run across seasons; bye weeks do not count. Historical lines must identify a sportsbook.
Logs and picks stay in this browser. Export regularly to move between devices. Historical odds backfill and cloud tracking remain future integrations.
Import shape
[{"player":"Player name","market":"player_receptions","games":[
{"date":"2026-09-20","value":4,"line":5.5,"book":"fanduel", "targets":8,"routes":31,"snaps":52}
]}]line, book, targets, routes, snaps, carries, and attempts are optional. Only verified completed games should be imported. The example is a schema, not a real player's data.
Loaded market inventory
Locked research picks
Save a candidate from its player page before kickoff. Enter the official final stat to grade it. Saved price and line remain fixed.
Official completed-game stat matching. Unmatched picks stay pending.
The streak is a filter—not a reason to bet
A long streak alone does not increase the probability of reversal. V1 screens streaks and provides a smoothed empirical estimate from your imported game logs. This is not yet a validated NFL projection model.
- Games are sorted newest first, with L10 shown in player charts.
- 100,000 browser simulations draw from a Beta posterior using all imported games, with one prior OVER and one prior UNDER. Each trial samples an outcome from that probability. Pushes are counted separately.
- This estimates the historical chance of exceeding today's line under exchangeable conditions. It does not adjust for opponent, injuries, weather, or role changes.
- The projection is the average of imported game values. L3 versus prior L3 usage is shown only when both windows have complete inputs.
- Fair odds and expected value use the selected reversal side. Push probability is included in expected value.
- No-vig comparison is available only when both sides share the same book and line.
- Missing game logs block projections. Missing historical lines block historical streaks. No line means no priced edge.
- Outputs are research estimates, not recommendations. Calibration and out-of-sample evaluation must precede confidence labels.
Knife Sharpness methodology
Balanced Sharpness (v3): usage, efficiency and current-season window mean contribute up to 40, 30 and 30 points. A score of 50 is neutral; higher values support the reversal side and lower values oppose it. Components use a smooth directional logistic scale, with 25% usage/efficiency and 20% mean-gap reference changes. Incomplete ratings display —, not zero. These research defaults are not calibrated win probabilities. Old saved ratings keep their original scale and remain in overall tracking.
Next model layer
Position-specific opponent allowances, injury/role impact modeling, unattended line collection, multi-device pick tracking, and out-of-sample reversal calibration. The current matchup panel supplies context; it does not adjust the Sharpness formula.